Gulf disturbance has 70% chance of development in seven days

Forecasters raised the Gulf disturbance’s chance of developing into a tropical system to 70% over the next seven days by Monday morning, up from 40% on Sunday, while cautioning that its organization and eventual track remain uncertain. The National Hurricane Center said a tropical depression or storm could form in the middle or latter part of the week. The disturbance is in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where forecasters are watching how it interacts with changing winds and a frontal boundary. Forecast models offer different scenarios for whether it will organize and where it may move, making it too early to determine its path or direct impacts. The 70% figure applies to development over seven days; the reports do not provide a comparable Monday update for the next 48 hours. Separately, South Florida is forecast to become wetter from Tuesday as moisture increases and a nearby front stalls. A local forecast calls for more widespread showers and thunderstorms, with repeated rounds possible by Wednesday and into the middle of the week. Repeated heavy rain over the same areas could lead to localized flooding, regardless of what happens with the Gulf disturbance.