NOAA Sees 60% Chance of Record-Strength El Niño

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects the current El Niño to strengthen through the end of 2026, and says there is a 60% chance it will become the strongest recorded since 1950. The forecast signals potential for significant weather effects, but does not establish how much rain California will receive this winter.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center also puts the likelihood of strong to very strong El Niño conditions persisting from January through March 2027 at greater than 79%. The agency’s outlook describes a developing Pacific climate pattern; NOAA cautions that even an exceptionally powerful El Niño does not guarantee extreme weather in every region.

The phenomenon occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than normal, influencing atmospheric circulation and weather around the world. In California, strong El Niño events can raise the likelihood of storms, particularly in the south, and bring risks including heavy rain, flooding and coastal erosion. Those are possibilities, not a prediction of a specific seasonal outcome.

California’s experience in 2015-16 illustrates the uncertainty. That strong El Niño brought...