Tracker projects 370,000 additional heat-related deaths

A heat-mortality tracker developed by University of Chicago researchers projects about 370,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide in the months ahead during the reported El Niño, a modeled estimate rather than a count of confirmed fatalities. The projection accompanies an estimate of about 484,500 heat-related deaths since the event began in June 2026. The El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker provides monthly projections up to six months ahead, alongside estimates for elapsed months. Researchers said estimates were revised upward after temperatures in August and September exceeded forecasts. The available reporting describes the outlook as covering the next six months and also points to March 2027, but does not establish the precise dates covered by the 370,000 projection. Nigeria, India and Brazil are projected to account together for more than a third of heat deaths by March 2027. The country rankings reflect estimated totals, not individual risk adjusted for population. The tracker’s retrospective estimates put India’s heat-related deaths since June at more than 100,000, China’s at 85,400, Sudan’s at 38,500 and Indonesia’s at more than 20,000. Those figures refer to the...