Heat linked to 50,391 deaths in European cities in 2026

Researchers estimate that heat caused 50,391 deaths in 854 European cities during June, July and August 2026, with 32,619 deaths attributed to the additional heat from human-caused climate change. The figures are modeled estimates, not a count of individual death certificates, and cover urban areas representing about 40% of the relevant European population. The analysis by researchers at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine examined heat-related mortality across 854 cities in 30 countries. It compared observed temperatures with a modeled version of summer conditions without human-caused warming, then used historical temperature and mortality data to estimate deaths associated with heat. Researchers said heat is often underreported on death certificates, making statistical modeling necessary. The estimated total for 2026 was more than 70% higher than the 29,480 heat-related deaths estimated for the 2022 summer in the same cities. The researchers’ estimate of 32,619 deaths attributable to human-caused warming represents about 65% of the total. A separate historical analysis found that the climate-change-attributable share was 42% in 2003...