UNEP says pledges still leave world on track for 2.6°C

The United Nations Environment Programme says current national climate policies could lead to about 2.8°C of global warming by 2100, while full implementation of countries’ latest pledges would still leave warming at about 2.6°C, according to its 2026 Emissions Gap Report released Wednesday. Both projections exceed the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals, the report says. UNEP estimates refer to warming above preindustrial levels. The report says the opportunity to avoid exceeding 1.5°C, or to limit any overshoot, has passed. It describes a pathway with a 50% chance of returning warming to 1.5°C by 2100, but says reaching it would require steep emissions cuts and large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Under that scenario, global greenhouse-gas emissions would need to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels. UNEP says this pathway also requires emissions to decline rapidly in the coming years. The figures are projections and targets set out in the report, not observed future outcomes. The report says global greenhouse-gas emissions in 2025 were broadly level with record emissions in 2024, while emissions from burning coal,...