UN says 1.5°C overshoot is now unavoidable

The world can no longer avoid temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C global warming threshold, according to the United Nations Environment Programme’s 2026 Emissions Gap Report, which says steep emissions cuts could limit the overshoot and potentially bring temperatures back to that level by 2100. The report sets out a lowest-overshoot pathway requiring global greenhouse gas emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels. Under that scenario, warming would peak at about 1.7°C to 1.8°C around mid-century before potentially returning to 1.5°C or below by the end of the century. Current national climate pledges would deliver much smaller reductions, the report says: 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035, relative to 2025. If governments continue with policies already in place, warming is projected to reach about 2.8°C this century. Even the report’s most optimistic scenario, which assumes countries meet current pledges and additional net-zero targets, would result in about 2.1°C of warming. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said overshooting the limit does not mean abandoning the goal of returning below it. UNEP Executive Director Inger...