Lancet Commission identifies 17 global threats through 2100

The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health has identified 17 interlinked dangers to health and survival through 2100, naming nuclear conflict and malicious use of artificial intelligence as low-likelihood risks with the potential to cause human extinction. The assessment also lists 15 other threats, including climate change, air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, conventional conflict, declining health aid, income inequality, obesity and poor mental health. The Commission says the threats interact and should be addressed together, while emphasizing that policy action could reduce their effects. The researchers assessed threats by modeling disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs: years of healthy life lost to sickness, disability or premature death. The work drew on expertise from 35 leaders and risk analysis covering 204 countries and territories. A threat was classified as catastrophic if it could account for at least one billion DALYs by 2100, had sufficient data for modeling and offered scope for intervention. The Commission estimates that malicious AI could cause 10.4 billion DALYs by 2100.