NOAA outlook favors warmer North, wetter southern US

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern United States and wetter-than-average conditions across parts of the South, Southwest and East Coast from December 2026 through February 2027. The seasonal forecast is probabilistic and does not guarantee specific local weather. Issued October 15, the outlook compares conditions with 1991-2020 climate normals. NOAA expects drought to improve or end by January in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast. It also forecasts drought development or worsening in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington. Idaho’s outlook is more varied: NOAA’s maps indicate possible drought impacts across much of the state, while its regional assessment identifies the northern Rockies and nearby areas as places where drought could worsen or develop. The agency cautions that heavy precipitation falling on dry ground can trigger flash floods and mudslides. Wetter conditions may ease drought in some regions, but the outlook does not promise that rainfall will resolve longer-term water shortages or...