UBS: China at Least a Decade Behind ASML in EUV Chip Tech

China is at least a decade away from matching the extreme ultraviolet lithography technology used by Dutch manufacturer ASML, according to a new analysis from investment bank UBS, which places the country's current progress at a level comparable to where ASML stood in 2004. The assessment, based on a review of patents for light sources and laser subsystems, suggests that while China is making strides in older deep ultraviolet systems, the gap in the most advanced chipmaking tools remains vast. The UBS report, led by analyst Francois-Xavier Bouvignies, concludes that China will not produce a viable EUV alternative within the next ten years. This finding comes as Chinese firms have recently begun mass production of immersion DUV tools, a less advanced but still critical category of lithography equipment. UBS forecasts that Chinese companies will achieve high-volume manufacturing of these immersion DUV machines within two to five years. This timeline is significant because export licenses for key immersion DUV models, such as ASML's NXT1970i and 1980i, have been under Dutch control since September 2024. The distinction between the two technologies is crucial.