U.S. agency says El Niño likely among strongest in 75 years

A powerful El Niño climate pattern is strengthening and is now forecast to become one of the most intense events in over 75 years, with significant global weather disruptions expected through early 2027. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center announced on Thursday, July 9, 2026, that there is an 81 percent chance the phenomenon will reach "very strong" levels between October and December, ranking it among the largest such events in the historical record dating back to 1950.

The agency defines a very strong El Niño as sea surface temperatures in a key equatorial Pacific region, known as Nino 3.4, reaching 2.0 degrees Celsius or more above average. Current temperatures there are already 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal, with some eastern Pacific areas recently recording anomalies as high as 2.7 degrees. Forecasters state there is a 97 percent probability the event will persist through early spring of 2027, with only a 3 percent chance conditions will return to normal by then.

El Niño, characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, alters atmospheric circulation worldwide. Its effects are already being factored into seasonal forecasts. In the...