WMO warns 2027 could be a record-warm year

The World Meteorological Organization warned on November 9 that 2027 could be a record-warm year as a developing El Niño adds to warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions. The forecast is not a confirmed outcome, and the strength and timing of El Niño’s effects remain uncertain.

In its State of the Climate assessment, the WMO said the global average surface temperature from January through September 2026 was about 1.47°C above the preindustrial average. It said 2026 is on track to rank among the four warmest years in records dating to around 1850. The figure covers nine months, not the full year.

The WMO said the warming influence of El Niño is often strongest in the year after it develops. The climate pattern releases heat stored in the ocean, adding to the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the organization said. It warned that this could raise the likelihood of extreme weather in 2027, but did not present a future temperature record as established.

The WMO assessment says each of the past 12 years ranks among the 12 warmest on record. Copernicus Climate Change Service considers it nearly certain that the 2026 annual average will exceed 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. If...