Strong El Niño Likely This Summer, Experts Forecast

Meteorologists from the UK's Met Office and international agencies have announced that a strong El Niño event is likely to develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean starting this summer, potentially becoming one of the most intense on record and driving global weather disruptions through late 2026 and into 2027.

El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, occurs when trade winds weaken, allowing warmer surface waters to build in the central and eastern Pacific. Current observations show sea surface temperatures in this region rising steadily, exceeding 0.5 degrees Celsius above long-term averages and approaching thresholds for a strong event, defined as 2 degrees Celsius or more above normal. Forecasts from multiple models, including those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, indicate a 60 to 80 percent chance of El Niño conditions emerging by mid-2026 and persisting through the year. There is a 25 to 50 percent probability of it reaching super strength, comparable to rare past episodes in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.

The shift follows the recent end of a La Niña cool...