Fossil Fuel CO₂ Emissions Forecast to Fall 0.4% in 2026

The Global Carbon Budget projects that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will fall 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion metric tons, but total global CO₂ emissions are still expected to rise. If the fossil-fuel forecast holds, it would be the first annual decline since 2020, when pandemic disruptions reduced economic activity.

The report, published in Earth System Science Data, attributes the projected dip in part to reduced oil use and energy demand amid the Iran-related energy shock, which pushed prices higher. Researchers also say wind and solar power and electric vehicles met roughly two-thirds of the growth in global energy demand. The remaining demand was lower than expected, in part because higher prices curbed consumption.

The figures do not establish that fossil-fuel emissions have reached a lasting peak. Researchers cited previous emissions declines during major disruptions, followed by increases as conditions changed. In a separate study of the projections, climate scientist Glen Peters said emissions probably would have risen without the Iran-related energy shock. The report’s coauthor Judith Hauck said emissions could rebound if the conflict ends and energy prices...