South Africa Warns of Record El Niño Threatening Hot, Dry Summer

The South African Weather Service warned on Tuesday that a potentially record-breaking El Niño event is developing in the Pacific Ocean, threatening to bring significantly hotter and drier conditions to most of South Africa from October 2026 through January 2027. The agency stated that the current El Niño could become the strongest in living memory, raising concerns about severe heatwaves, drought, and water scarcity. El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern-central tropical Pacific Ocean. According to the weather service, a strong El Niño is defined by sea surface temperatures at least 1.5°C above normal, while a very strong event exceeds 2°C. Current forecasts indicate the anomaly could surpass 3°C this spring, placing it firmly in the very strong category. The latest seasonal forecast from the South African Weather Service indicates that below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome for most of the country during the October to December 2026 period. This pattern is expected to persist into the November 2026 to January 2027 period, with above-normal temperatures forecast across much of South Africa.