NOAA Forecasts Strong El Niño Could Break Records

A rapidly strengthening El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean is increasingly likely to become one of the most powerful on record, with federal forecasters now assigning a 69 percent chance it will exceed the intensity of every El Niño observed since 1950. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center reported Thursday that the climate pattern now has a greater than 90 percent probability of reaching "very strong" status during the fall and winter of 2026-27, raising concerns about significant global weather disruptions and economic impacts.

The latest outlook, released August 13, 2026, marks a notable escalation from previous forecasts. In June, NOAA officially designated El Niño as fully developed and assigned a 63 percent chance of it becoming very strong. By July, that probability had risen to 81 percent. The new assessment indicates the event is intensifying faster than earlier models suggested, with ocean temperatures in key parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific now more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures across parts of the central...