Met Office warns of strongest El Niño in over a century

Britain's national weather agency warned on Friday, August 21, 2026, that a developing El Niño climate pattern is on track to become the strongest in more than a century, forecast to trigger severe droughts across parts of the tropics and a wet, stormy autumn for the United Kingdom. The Met Office stated that sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific are expected to rise to an unprecedented level of more than 3 degrees Celsius above the average.

El Niño is declared when those temperatures rise 0.5°C above the long-term average, disrupting global weather patterns. A typical event produces a warming of 1°C to 2°C, making the current forecast exceptionally intense. Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, described the situation as "an unprecedented event," adding, "I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts." Temperatures in the region are already running about 2.6°C above the 30-year average.

The agency said 2026 will be "renowned for the development of the largest El Niño in living memory" and likely the largest since the 19th century. The event is expected to peak towards the end of 2026, with its most significant...