India Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon Rainfall for 2026

India's weather forecasters have predicted below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall for the June to September 2026 season, raising alarms for the country's agriculture-dependent economy. The India Meteorological Department issued the forecast on April 13, estimating seasonal precipitation at 92 percent of the long-period average of 870 millimeters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. This projection marks the first below-normal outlook from the department in eight years.

The forecast attributes the expected shortfall primarily to the emergence of strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a climate pattern associated with warmer sea surface temperatures that historically weakens India's monsoon. Since 1951, 10 out of 16 El Niño years have seen deficient or below-normal rainfall in the country. Reduced snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere over the past three months has also factored into the prediction. Officials noted that current neutral conditions, transitioning from weak La Niña, are likely to shift toward El Niño after June, though a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could provide some relief in the latter part of the season.