El Nino Ties Record Pacific Heat and Is Still Intensifying

The 2026 El Niño has reached record-breaking territory weeks before its expected peak, with daily sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific tying or surpassing the highest levels ever measured depending on the baseline used. As of September 19, the daily anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region stood at 3.07C, placing it in a statistical tie with the record of 3.08C set on November 18, 2015, according to an analysis of NOAA data. Using a 1991-2020 baseline, the same reading of 3.05C on September 19 exceeded the previous high of 3.02C from November 2015, marking the earliest such peak in the calendar year by about two months. The Oceanic Niño Index, which measures temperatures against a rolling 30-year average, stood at 3.04C as of September 20, according to the FOX Forecast Center. The event has been underway since June and is developing faster than any previous El Niño on record, according to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth. The August 2026 Niño 3.4 anomaly of 2.45C exceeds the peak of every prior El Niño except 2015-16 and a reconstructed 1877-78 event. Averaging 14 seasonal forecast models, Hausfather projected the event will peak at around 4.