CSU Forecasts Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Colorado State University researchers have forecasted a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, predicting 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes with winds exceeding 111 miles per hour. The outlook, released Thursday, attributes the quieter activity primarily to the anticipated development of a moderate to strong El Niño pattern, which is expected to generate high wind shear across the Atlantic basin and disrupt tropical storm formation.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with the most intense activity typically occurring between August and October. According to the university's statistical and dynamical models, the forecast marks the lowest number of named storms predicted by the team since 2019. In comparison, the long-term average from 1991 to 2020 includes 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, influences global weather by altering atmospheric circulation. Current conditions have shifted from La Niña, which ended in March, to neutral, with forecasters anticipating El Niño...