Cook shifts 19 House races toward Democrats

The Cook Political Report shifted 19 House race ratings toward Democrats on October 23, including six contests moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, strengthening the party’s projected path to a majority while leaving the election outcome uncertain. The changes came less than two weeks before the November 3 midterm election. Cook attributed the shifts to new polling and advertising spending. Four of the six races moving to Lean Democrat are held by Republican incumbents, according to the report. Two open seats moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up. After the update, Cook rated Democrats favored in 220 seats and Republicans favored in 198, with 17 races classified as Toss Ups. Its likeliest outcome was a Democratic gain of 12 to 22 seats. That is a forecast, not a result, and the ratings do not establish which party will ultimately control the House or the size of any majority. Among the races highlighted in the update, Republican-held seats involving Juan Ciscomani in Arizona, Gabe Evans in Colorado, Jen Kiggans in Virginia and Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. The changes indicate Cook sees Democrats as favored in those contests, but not...