Democrats Lead in House Preferences as Midterms Near

The 2026 midterm campaign is unfolding amid weak public ratings of the country’s direction, economic concerns and a national polling advantage for Democrats, though those measures do not determine how congressional races will turn out. A Pew Research Center survey conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4 among 3,917 registered voters found 44% preferred a Democratic candidate for the House, compared with 36% who preferred a Republican. The eight-point gap is a national measure of voter preference, not a forecast of the outcome in individual districts. The same survey found 84% of registered voters considered the economy very important to their vote. That included 88% of voters who supported Democratic House candidates and 82% of those supporting Republicans. Concerns about prices, including energy costs, have been prominent in accounts of the election climate. Democratic supporters also reported greater engagement on several measures in the survey. Seventy-eight percent said control of Congress really mattered, nine points more than Republican supporters.