CIA Assessment Warns of Risk to Israel’s Stability

An unpublished CIA assessment drafted in August warns that Israel could face civil conflict or state collapse as political, economic and social pressures converge, according to accounts of the classified document. The assessment, titled “Fracture From Within,” was prepared by the agency’s Red Cell, which produces alternative analysis, and its contents have not been publicly confirmed by the CIA. The reported analysis identifies anger over exemptions for Haredi, or ultra-Orthodox, men from military service as a major source of domestic tension. The dispute comes amid repeated reserve mobilizations and concerns about military manpower. The assessment also describes soldiers returning from prolonged combat with psychological trauma as one factor that could compound the strain. Other pressures cited in accounts of the assessment include economic difficulties, increased military spending, political divisions and tensions involving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to remain in power. The document reportedly warns that these issues could intensify one another, rather than identifying a single cause of possible instability.