CFTC Examines Kinzinger Trades on His Own Pardon

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is examining trades linked to former Rep. Adam Kinzinger on Kalshi prediction markets concerning whether he would receive a presidential pardon and whether Joe Biden would issue preemptive pardons, according to people familiar with the inquiry. The investigation’s outcome is not known, and no finding of a rule violation has been reported. Kinzinger, a former Republican member of Congress who left office in 2023, acknowledged making the trades in December 2024 and January 2025. He has said he had no advance information about the pardons, had not discussed them with anyone in a position to know, and checked Kalshi’s rules before placing the bets. He said he believed his trades complied with those rules. Kinzinger said screenshots he shared showed a net profit of $823. He described making roughly 25 trades during the period, most of which lost money. The account under review placed wagers on a contract concerning his own pardon and another about whether Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office.