Kalshi Midterm Trading Tops $1.4 Billion as Odds Favor Democrats

Kalshi’s midterm-related trading volume exceeded $1.4 billion by Election Day, while its markets favored Democrats to win control of the House and Senate, according to data supplied by the company and reported odds on November 3. Kalshi gave Democrats a 93% chance of winning the House and a 73% chance of taking the Senate in a snapshot reported that day. Those probabilities reflected contract prices at a particular time, not election results or a guarantee of what voters would decide. An earlier Election Day snapshot put the Senate probability at 75%. A separate analysis of Kalshi and Polymarket contracts found nearly $1.9 billion in combined election-related trading as of November 2. That total comprised about $1.3 billion on Kalshi and $600 million on Polymarket. The figures cover both platforms and an earlier date, while Kalshi’s later $1.4 billion figure covers its own midterm-related trading. On Kalshi, the contract on which party would control Congress had drawn $251 million in trading volume, according to the company data. A contract on House control had exceeded $181 million, and a market covering the possible combinations of House and Senate control had topped $112...