Brazil’s Presidential Race Remains Uncertain Before Vote

Brazil’s October 4 presidential election is approaching with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro at the center of a closely watched contest, but polls reviewed before voting offer no clear national outcome. A Rio Grande do Sul survey put Bolsonaro ahead in that state, while the same polling firm’s national survey showed Lula leading. Real Time Big Data interviewed 1,600 voters in Rio Grande do Sul from September 24 to 28. In its first-round presidential question, Bolsonaro received 44% and Lula 41%. The margin of error was two percentage points, making the reported three-point gap imprecise. The figures count all respondents, including people who said they would cast blank or spoiled ballots and those who did not answer; the poll did not publish a valid-vote version of the presidential result. The firm’s separate national survey, conducted September 19 to 23, put Lula at 41% and Bolsonaro at 37%. The polls measure different electorates, and the state result cannot establish the national race. Rio Grande do Sul is one of Brazil’s 26 states and accounts for about 5.4% of the country’s registered voters, according to figures cited in the poll report.