Lula Wins Brazil Runoff as Electoral Probe Opens

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff on October 25, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.78% to 51.79% of the vote, against Bolsonaro’s 48.21% to 48.22%. The narrow victory gives Lula a fourth, nonconsecutive term, but leaves him facing a divided electorate and a Congress where conservative forces hold substantial influence.

The result reversed Lula’s first-round deficit to Bolsonaro, who is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The close vote underscores the continued strength of the political movement associated with the former president, even as Lula secured another term. Reports of the election totals cited the Superior Electoral Court’s tally; the slight variation in published percentages reflects rounding.

Lula’s ability to carry out his agenda will depend in part on negotiations with lawmakers. The Liberal Party is projected to hold 121 of 513 lower-house seats and 28 of 81 Senate seats when the next Congress convenes on February 1, 2027. Those totals point to a conservative legislative obstacle for the incoming administration, though the precise path of legislation will depend on alliances and negotiations.

A separate electoral case opened after...