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Brazil’s presidential election pits Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro

Published 3 October 2026

Brazilian voters are scheduled to choose a president Sunday in a closely contested election between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, with the result carrying implications for the country’s domestic policies and ties with the United States and China. No vote has taken place in the reports, and the outcome remains uncertain. Lula is seeking a fourth term. Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is campaigning as his main rival. If neither candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff is scheduled for October 25. Recent polls offer different snapshots of the race. An AtlasIntel-Bloomberg survey released Tuesday put Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.7 percent and Lula at 47.6 percent in a possible runoff. A separate Datafolha poll conducted after the United States imposed a 25 percent tariff on Brazilian imports in July showed Lula ahead in a runoff, 48 percent to 43 percent. The figures come from different surveys and periods and do not establish the eventual result. The campaign has unfolded amid tension between Washington and Brasília.

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