Brazil Election Nears as Poll Shows Lula Lead, Tied Runoff

Brazil’s October 4 presidential election is approaching with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro competing in a close race, while polling offers differing snapshots and allegations of outside interference remain unverified. A final AtlasIntel survey puts Lula ahead in the first round but shows a tied hypothetical runoff; voters have not yet cast ballots. The survey, conducted September 23-28 among 5,005 voters, measured Lula at 46.2% and Bolsonaro at 43.1% of valid first-round votes. It placed Renan Santos third at 5.3%. In a simulated runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro, the candidates were tied at 50% each on valid votes. The poll’s margin of error was one percentage point. Those figures are one poll’s findings, not an election result. Other polling cited in the campaign has shown different margins, and the measures are not directly comparable. Political scientist Sergio Abranches, discussing earlier poll averages and a September 21 survey, said spontaneous responses suggested roughly 30% to 35% of voters remained undecided.