UNEP: Current climate plans won't prevent warming this century

A United Nations analysis released Tuesday warns that current national climate plans will not prevent dangerous warming this century, projecting global average temperatures will rise roughly 2.3 to 2.8 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels if recent pledges and policies play out. The Emissions Gap Report 2025, published ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Belem, Brazil, finds that while updated commitments and rapid growth in renewables have reduced worst-case projections, progress remains far short of the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Under the report's scenarios, fully implemented nationally determined contributions submitted for 2035 would limit warming to about 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius, while continuing current policies would put the world on track for about 2.8 degrees. In a more optimistic scenario in which all NDCs and net zero pledges are met, median warming could be constrained near 1.9 degrees, but the report says that even that outcome leaves only a limited probability of keeping warming below 1.5 degrees this century. The authors calculate there is a high likelihood that the 1.5 degree threshold will be exceeded within the next...