Tropical Storm Karina intensifies, models suggest possible California path

Tropical Storm Karina is intensifying over the eastern Pacific and is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend, with some computer models suggesting a rare and uncertain path toward Southern California. As of Friday, August 28, 2026, the storm was located more than 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, packing maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph and moving northwest at roughly 13 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center expects Karina to strengthen into a hurricane over the weekend. While the official forecast track keeps the storm well south of California, some long-range forecast models have depicted scenarios where the system bends toward the U.S. West Coast. These projections have generated significant attention due to the extreme rarity of such an event. However, forecasters emphasize that confidence in the storm's path several days out is low, as spaghetti models show a wide spread of possible tracks.

The National Weather Service in San Diego stated Friday that Karina is currently forecast to remain well south of Southern California. Even so, forecasters noted that moisture from the system could be...