Texas Polls Show Abbott and Hinojosa in Tight Governor Race

A new Texas poll places Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa within one percentage point of each other, underscoring a tightly contested gubernatorial race but not establishing a clear leader. The ReconMR survey of 617 likely voters, conducted October 5-8, found Abbott at 48% and Hinojosa at 47%. Its margin of error was 4.4 percentage points in either direction. The results are therefore statistically consistent with a close race, rather than proof that Abbott is ahead. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll also described the contest as effectively tied, with Hinojosa one point ahead of Abbott among a broader sample of 1,200 registered voters. A Marist poll, by contrast, put Abbott ahead 49% to 45% among likely voters and reported a seven-point shift toward the governor since September. The polls use different samples and populations, and their narrow margins point to a competitive contest without establishing a definitive ranking. The ReconMR survey found that 62% of respondents expected Abbott to win, compared with 29% who expected Hinojosa to prevail, despite the near-even vote preference.