Study: Heat to Cause 470K-700K Deaths Yearly by 2050

A new study warns that rising global temperatures driven by climate change could lead to hundreds of thousands of premature deaths each year by 2050, as extreme heat discourages physical activity and exacerbates health risks worldwide.

Researchers from the Catholic University of Argentina analyzed data from 156 countries spanning 2000 to 2022, drawing on World Health Organization surveys involving 5.7 million adults. Their findings, published in The Lancet Global Health, reveal that each additional month with average temperatures exceeding 27.8 degrees Celsius correlates with a 1.4 percentage point increase in physical inactivity globally. The effect is more pronounced in low- and middle-income countries, where inactivity rises by 1.85 percentage points per such month. By mid-century, under various emissions scenarios, this could result in 470,000 to 700,000 extra deaths annually linked to reduced exercise, alongside productivity losses estimated at 2.4 billion to 3.7 billion U.S. dollars each year.

Physical inactivity already affects about one-third of adults worldwide, who fail to meet WHO guidelines of at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity activity or 75 minutes of...