NOAA Outlook Favors Warm North, Wetter South and West

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern United States and wetter-than-average conditions in parts of the South and West from December 2026 through February 2027, as a strengthening El Niño shapes seasonal probabilities. The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook also points to above-average precipitation across parts of the East, including the Southeast and areas along the Eastern Seaboard. In the West, the favored wet pattern includes California and parts of the Southwest. The forecast describes likelihoods compared with typical conditions, not guaranteed outcomes for every location. NOAA says the expected pattern reflects El Niño’s influence on the Pacific jet stream, which can shift south and east and steer storm systems toward the southern United States. The agency’s outlook also favors drought improvement in parts of the South and Southwest. By contrast, drought development or worsening is favored in the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington. The seasonal outlook does not specify how much snow any community will receive or predict the timing of individual...