WMO: El Niño likely to persist through February 2027

The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is strengthening and is likely to persist through February 2027, with the climate pattern forecast to peak in December and potentially rank among the strongest since at least 1950. The WMO’s monthly climate bulletin gives a near-100% likelihood that the event will continue through February. The organization expects sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific to average about 3.7°C above the 1993-2009 average during October-December. That forecast would exceed the previous 2.6°C anomaly recorded from November 2015 to January 2016. The temperature figure is a seasonal forecast, not a report of a measured average for the full period. The WMO has also reported that the Niño 3.4 anomaly rose from 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C in August. A separate mid-September daily reading cited in other reporting was 3.05°C above average, covering a different observation period. Early-October guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts projects a December peak above 4°C in the Niño 3.4 index. Many of its forecast ensemble members remain above 3°C until April 2027.