Cumbre Vieja collapse risk remains distant, models differ

Volcanologist Bill McGuire says the western flank of Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma could eventually collapse into the Atlantic, but he places the possibility centuries or millennia away. Models of such a collapse produce widely varying estimates of waves reaching the U.S. East Coast, and researchers say the volcano is currently stable.

A worst-case computer simulation cited by McGuire projects waves about 65 feet high reaching Florida roughly nine hours after a collapse. That figure describes a modeled scenario, not a forecast that a collapse or tsunami is imminent. Other modeling, cited in reports drawing on the U.S. Geological Survey, estimates waves of about three to seven feet along the U.S. East Coast in a significant collapse.

The scenarios differ in their assumptions and estimates of how a collapsing mass would displace water and how waves would lose energy across the ocean. Earlier models considered collapses of 150 to 500 cubic kilometers and projected waves of 10 to 25 meters. Later work has revised estimates for distant coastlines downward, while the local hazard to La Palma and nearby islands would be greater if a major collapse occurred.