NOAA Forecasts Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season With Risk

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, with forecasters predicting a season of below-average activity overall but warning that significant risk remains for parts of the U.S. coastline. The primary factor expected to suppress storm development is the anticipated formation of a strong El Niño climate pattern, which increases disruptive wind shear over the Atlantic.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a 55% chance of a below-average season, predicting eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. Other forecast groups have issued similar outlooks, with predictions ranging from 11 to 16 named storms. Despite the expectation for fewer storms, meteorologists emphasize that it only takes one landfalling system to create a catastrophic season.

Areas identified with a higher-than-historical-average risk for significant tropical impacts include the central and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, and parts of coastal Virginia. In contrast, central and southern Texas face a lower-than-average risk. Forecasters note that exceptionally warm ocean waters, which extend hundreds of feet deep, could fuel any storms that...