Markets Favor Democrats to Win Both Chambers in Midterms

Prediction markets gave Democrats a stronger chance than Republicans of taking control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections, with Kalshi pricing a Democratic Senate win at 74% and a House win at 94% as of Monday morning. The estimates are market probabilities, not election results, and voters had yet to cast their ballots. Kalshi’s Senate-control figure was 74% for Democrats and 26% for Republicans at noon ET Monday. Traders on the platform also put the odds of Democratic control of the House at 94%, against 6% for Republicans. Polymarket traders gave Democrats a 73% chance of winning the Senate, according to a Monday report. The platform figures apply to different markets and snapshots. Kalshi’s Senate estimate had risen about 11 percentage points from roughly 63% on October 2, after Republicans held the advantage earlier in the cycle. The platform’s candidate markets also favored Democrats in several closely watched races: 78% for Abdul ElSayed in Michigan and 73% for Troy Jackson in Maine, as of noon Monday. A separate forecast by CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, aired October 30, gave Democrats a 71% chance of taking the Senate and 92% of...