India's IMD confirms El Niño, warns of stronger monsoon

The India Meteorological Department has officially confirmed the onset of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, warning the climate phenomenon is expected to strengthen during the ongoing southwest monsoon season. The declaration, made in the department's June 2026 bulletin, revives concerns over potential impacts on rainfall, agriculture, and water security across the country.

The IMD stated that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have crossed the threshold for El Niño, with the atmosphere also responding to the ocean warming, confirming the coupled system is now in an El Niño state. Forecast models indicate the event is likely to intensify, with moderate to strong conditions anticipated through much of the monsoon period. Historically, El Niño has been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall, prolonged dry spells, higher temperatures, and an increased risk of drought in India.

This development follows a delayed monsoon onset over Kerala on June 4, several days later than the typical June 1 date. In late May, the IMD had already forecast a below-normal monsoon season, projecting rainfall at approximately 90 percent of the long-period...