India cuts monsoon forecast to 90% of average, El Niño risk

India’s national weather agency has revised its forecast for the upcoming monsoon season, now predicting below-normal rainfall that is expected to affect agricultural regions and contribute to heatwave conditions in several states. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Friday that the southwest monsoon from June to September is likely to bring only 90 percent of the long-period average rainfall, a slight downgrade from its April forecast of 92 percent.

The forecast indicates that only the northeastern region of the country is expected to receive rainfall within the normal range, estimated between 94 and 106 percent of the long-period average. In contrast, central India, the southern peninsula, and northwest India are all projected to experience below-normal precipitation. Particularly significant is the outlook for the monsoon core zone, a region encompassing major rain-fed agricultural areas, which is also expected to receive below-normal rainfall.

Officials linked the revised forecast to evolving oceanic conditions. The Director General of Meteorology, Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, stated that neutral conditions are transitioning toward an El Niño weather pattern....