World Bank forecasts 23% rise in commodity prices in 2026

The World Bank forecasts that global commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026 from 2025, driven by higher energy costs and supply disruptions, before falling 7% in 2027. The projections assume no major intensification of conflicts affecting global supplies, the bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released October 28. Energy prices are expected to climb 32% this year, reversing three years of declines. Brent crude is forecast to average $91 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, then ease to $79 in 2027. The bank projects global oil supply will shrink 5.2% in 2026, while consumption falls 2.5%. With production below consumption, further withdrawals from inventories would leave markets more exposed to supply disruption, the report said. Food commodity prices are forecast to rise about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, an approximately 18% cumulative increase. The bank cited disrupted grain shipments, higher fuel and fertilizer costs, and the risk that El Niño could damage harvests. Fertilizer prices are projected to increase 14% in 2026 before returning to 2025 levels in 2027. The outlook also projects metals prices will rise 25% in 2026, with aluminum, copper...