IMF Sees 3.1% Global Growth in 2026 Amid Rising Risks

The International Monetary Fund projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, warning that energy shocks and uneven gains from artificial intelligence investment are putting pressure on the world economy’s resilience. The forecasts appear in the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, presented at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok. The 2026 projection is unchanged from April, while the 2027 estimate is moderately higher. Global growth was 3.5% in 2025, according to the report. The fund expects global headline inflation to rise to 4.7% in 2026, then ease to 4.1% in 2027. It attributes the increase mainly to higher energy and food prices. Energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict are adding pressure, while the IMF says strong investment in AI has supported activity in some economies. That combination is widening differences between countries, the report says. Economies benefiting from technology-related exports and investment have a cushion, while energy-importing countries outside the AI boom face higher costs and weaker demand. The IMF says low-income countries are particularly vulnerable to a prolonged disruption to energy production and transport.