IMF raises Nigeria growth forecast, warns of poverty risks

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 while warning that high prices for essential goods could deepen poverty and food insecurity, according to its October 2026 World Economic Outlook. The IMF projects Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.2% in 2026, up from an estimated 4.0% in 2025, and by 4.3% in 2027. It increased both its 2026 and 2027 growth projections by 0.1 percentage point from its April forecasts. The Fund said improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade were supporting Nigeria’s outlook. But it cautioned that higher prices for essentials could worsen conditions for households, particularly those already struggling to afford food and other basic goods. The warning highlights that stronger economic indicators do not necessarily translate into improved household welfare. At a briefing on the outlook, Deniz Igan, a division chief in the IMF Research Department, recommended temporary, targeted income support or cash transfers for vulnerable households.