IATA cuts 2026 airline profit forecast to $23 billion

The global airline industry has sharply downgraded its profit forecast for 2026, with expected net profits nearly halving due to soaring jet fuel prices and operational disruptions from conflict in the Middle East. The International Air Transport Association announced the revised outlook on Sunday, projecting a combined net profit of $23 billion for the year, down from a previous forecast of $41 billion and a $45 billion estimate for 2025.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the combination of a rapid 70 percent rise in jet fuel prices and the disruption to airlines in the Gulf region has significantly worsened the industry's financial outlook. The association now expects the global net profit margin to shrink to 2.0 percent in 2026, compared to 4.2 percent in 2025.

The conflict has forced widespread rerouting of flights around closed or restricted airspace, adding hours to some journeys and increasing fuel consumption. This has created particular operational uncertainty for Gulf carriers like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways. Walsh stated that while airlines in most regions are expected to remain profitable, carriers in the Middle East are likely to slip into...