Human-caused climate change boosts Europe fire risk

A new scientific analysis has concluded that human-caused climate change dramatically increased the likelihood of the extreme fire weather fueling devastating wildfires across Southern Europe this summer. The conditions behind the blazes, which have scorched over 120,000 hectares and forced hundreds of thousands to evacuate, were made at least 20 times more likely in central Spain and at least twice as likely in southwestern France.

The rapid attribution study, conducted by the World Weather Attribution group, analyzed the seven-day period with the most severe fire weather conditions in the affected regions. Researchers used a metric called the Daily Severity Rating, which incorporates heat, dryness, and wind to gauge how difficult a fire is to suppress. They found that in today's climate, such intense fire weather is expected roughly once every six years in central Spain and once every 20 years in southwestern France. The scientists described their estimates as conservative.

The findings underscore a dangerous trend. A separate, peer-reviewed study published on July 30 in the journal Scientific Reports analyzed decades of data from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece. It...