Hormuz Crude Flows Rebound, but Fuel Supplies Lag

Crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to around prewar levels, but the recovery has not extended to refined fuels, leaving diesel and other fuel supplies constrained. Kpler estimates that a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels of crude a day was transiting the strait as of Monday, September 28, roughly matching the prewar level. The estimate is based on one tanker-tracking firm’s data and does not establish that flows will remain there. The scale of the rebound depends on the measurement period and tracking service. For the week ending September 27, Kpler estimated nearly 12.5 million barrels a day through Hormuz, while Windward put the figure closer to 10 million. Those estimates differ from Kpler’s 13.5-million-barrel seven-day average, and the available figures do not resolve which best represents traffic for that week. The improvement in crude shipments has not brought comparable relief in refined products. Kpler estimated that refined-product shipments through Hormuz averaged 677,000 barrels a day over seven days, far below the 3.6 million barrels a day recorded before the war.