IEA Forecasts Fourth-Quarter Oil Surplus as Gulf Exports Recover

The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to exceed demand in the fourth quarter of 2026, forecasting an average surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day as exports from the Gulf recover. The agency also said its member countries plan to make 71 million barrels of emergency reserves available by the end of February 2027, including 15 million barrels of diesel.

The projected fourth-quarter supply average is 105 million barrels per day, the IEA said in its November market report. The forecast reverses its earlier expectation of a deficit. It remains an outlook rather than a confirmed market outcome, and depends in part on recovering exports.

The planned reserve releases are part of a coordinated response begun in March. The IEA said the remaining volumes are intended to add supply to markets and address tightness in refined products, particularly diesel. The schedule calls for withdrawals to continue through February, but the agency’s forecast surplus and the reserve plan are separate developments.

Crude availability has improved as Middle Eastern exports recover, despite continued attacks on shipping, the IEA said. Gulf shipments reached 18.4 million barrels per day,...