Hayes Warns AI Slowdown Could Expose Trillion Dollar Debt

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, argued in an essay published Sept. 22, 2026 that recent pledges by major U.S. artificial intelligence labs to slow development could mask weakening demand for AI services and expose more than $1 trillion in AI-linked debt, a scenario he believes would eventually expand dollar liquidity and benefit Bitcoin. In the essay, titled "Safety First" and published on Crypto Trader Digest, Hayes contended that cheaper models from Chinese rivals are priced at roughly one-hundredth of U.S. offerings, and that slowing development may serve as a convenient rationale for labs facing commercial pressure. He modeled the three dominant AI labs as still unprofitable on a full-cost basis while their forecast compute requirements generate funding needs exceeding a trillion dollars of investment-grade debt and hundreds of billions of dollars in lower-rated loans tied to data centers, power arrangements and chip supply chains. Hayes identified the U.S. insurance industry as a hidden risk channel. Citing analysis by Nick Nemeth, he suggested affiliated reinsurance arrangements could total roughly $1.