Global Smartphone Shipments to Fall 2.1% in 2026

Global smartphone shipments are projected to decline by 2.1 percent in 2026, reversing earlier expectations of stable or modest growth, as surging prices for memory chips strain manufacturers amid booming demand from artificial intelligence data centers.

The revised forecast from market research firm Counterpoint Research attributes the downturn primarily to sharp increases in costs for DRAM and NAND flash memory, key components in mobile devices. Production of these chips has shifted toward high-performance variants needed for AI servers, reducing availability for consumer electronics. Since early 2025, bills of materials for budget smartphones priced under $200 have risen 20 to 30 percent, while midrange and high-end models have seen increases of 10 to 15 percent. Counterpoint anticipates memory prices could climb another 40 percent through the second quarter of 2026, potentially pushing overall production costs 8 to 15 percent higher than current levels.

This supply crunch stems from the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, where each server requires far more memory chips than a single smartphone. Major suppliers including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have prioritized...