Global Rice Supply to Decline This Year

Global rice supply is projected to decline this year as Asian farmers reduce planting areas amid fertilizer shortages, surging fuel costs linked to the Iran war, and an emerging El Nino weather pattern, threatening output of the world's primary staple food.

The disruptions stem from the war's impact on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for fuel and fertilizer shipments from the Gulf. Farmers in major producers Thailand and Vietnam, as well as import-dependent Philippines and Indonesia, report higher input costs forcing cutbacks. Southeast Asia's smallholder growers face additional pressure from El Nino's forecast of hotter, drier conditions starting in the second half of the year.

"Farmers have already started planting rice in some countries and are using fewer inputs because prices have gone up," said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. "We are going to see a tighter global supply situation in the second half of the year and early next year."

Rice planting schedules vary across the region, where most countries harvest two or three crops annually. India, Thailand and the Philippines prepare main crops for June and July,...