FAO warns Hormuz closure could trigger food price crisis in 6 to 12 months

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned on Wednesday that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has initiated a systemic shock to global agricultural systems that could trigger a severe food price crisis within six to twelve months. The agency stressed that the disruption is not temporary and that the window for preventive action is closing rapidly.

The strait, a critical maritime chokepoint, has been effectively closed to tanker and cargo traffic since late February. Prior to the closure, the waterway accounted for one-fifth of global oil shipments and one-third of the world’s fertilizer supply. Officials have warned that farmers could face fertilizer shortages during the crucial summer growing season.

In a statement and a podcast published Wednesday, the FAO described the shock as unfolding in sequential stages: beginning with energy and fertilizer, moving to seeds and lower crop yields, then driving up commodity prices, and finally resulting in widespread food inflation. The agency’s global Food Price Index, which tracks international prices for a basket of food commodities, has risen for three consecutive months, a trend it links to higher energy costs and...